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Moore's Law

Posted by Gary Robusto on November 18, 2013 at 5:45 PM

BLOG # 28

TOPIC: Moore's Law

Tom Conwell, UFOlogist

Why should this apply to UFO's? One simple reason - the need for computers is overwhelming when talking about navigating space. One human can't just grab a joystick and make it happen, there are too many things like matching the correct speed with a large planet and inserting yourself directly into orbit around it or maybe calculating the angle required to insert yourself into that orbit without entering the atmosphere and burning up. The first computers used in the US space program were pretty rudimentary. You have WAY, WAY more computing power in your phone than was available to NASA at that time (unless there was something they weren't telling us) - at least the better phones today. Moore's Law directly relates to this.


What is Moore's Law and why does it apply? I'm not sure if you remember but back in the early 90's when the first desktop computers were marketed to the everyday person, once you bought your computer after a lot of soul searching you almost immediately found out that the next version was about to be released and it was twice as fast and held twice as much as the one you just paid $1500.00 for. Aggravating to say the least. It turns out that every two years, the computer doubled its chip performance and no matter what you did, you were about to be disappointed. This was a direct effect of the transistors used in manufacturing were faster than the previous version, smaller than before and you could put more on a board. This "speed" actually translated to 18 months cycle where computers were twice as fast as before. Your warranty wouldn't get enough time to expire when your computer was obsolete - thanks Intel!


Let's fast forward to early 2000 where it was getting more challenging to double the speed of your computer every two years although storage systems on the computer were expanding quickly. It seems that little memory sticks were holding twice as much as before almost every six months. This was really crazy. It was becoming apparent to the scientists involved in design that we were quickly approaching a point where we could no longer hold that design record. By 2013 (that would be now) we will be approaching a point where this doubling would take three years and it may be limited further again by heat and materials. It is now when the materials being experimented with include transistors made up of atoms or even just electrons without the atoms. We cannot keep going with things the same size, the pressure is on to increase speed while limiting heat - an almost impossible combination. You want more work - you get more heat!!! Many experiments now center around super cooling materials to squeeze more effectiveness from them. Can you imagine getting a tune up on your computer from Geek Squad that included a huge bottle of liquid Nitrogen. I sense hundreds of thousands of trips to the ER for frostbite or shattered appendages. This won't work!


NOTE: This increase in size and speed is an exponential increase. Example time: The moment that you (or your wife) gets pregnant, the baby-to-be consists of one merged cell (two if you are getting technical), a short time later the cell divides and becomes two, some time later each cell divides and becomes 4, then 8, then 16 then 32, then 64 then 128 ... then you throw up a lot and 9 months later you deliver a human to the world containing billions of reproducing cells. This is an exponential progression and it follows the same track that transistors being slammed into one lonely chip follows.


We can only put so many transistors into a chip before stuff happens like runaway heat, electrical shorts, manufacturing problems, product cleanliness issues and the ultimate limit to processing speed (how fast your computer wants to run when given a chore). Processing speed is already being played with by manufacturers, they are putting in multiple processors and having them run simultaneously and adding extra memory to use to accomplish this task. This is a trick and cannot last forever. No matter what you do to trick the speed of the computer there are some huge bottlenecks like the hard drive. Ever notice how warm your laptop computer happens to be running? These things have a finite life and especially a finite speed. We need to experiment with faster operations and smaller components like the quantum or maybe the DNA computer maybe after 2020. Why? Computing power is required to accomplish the skills required to advance in the future, something like 2 X 10^50 power or a 2 with fifty zeros after it. That should do it unless Microsoft Windows continues at the same inflated pace then nothing will run this operating system in 10 years - DNA or quantum!


We need super duper computers to expand into the cosmos, it's logical to think that if there are UFO's visiting here, they already have something like this. Our civilization will require this in 20 or so years just to get by, medicine will require super computers soon and our data driven environment will grind to a halt if we don't come up with something really fast and really soon. Let's get cracking kiddies! We need something in the works really soon.

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